British Trader's $44k Dropping Odds Success Story + Iowa's New Betting Laws

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Hey there! This week we're rewinding to one of the most popular blog posts of 2024 about the British bookie trader's $44k success story, plus some interesting news from Iowa. Today, we'll look at:

🔄 Blog Favorite (March 2024) - How a British Trader Made £35k in 4 Months

🇺🇸 The Hawkeye State Takes Aim at Account Sharing

This, and more, in just 5 minutes to read.

Dylan

🔄 Blog Favorite (March 2024) - How a British Trader Made £35k in 4 Months

From 9am to 5pm Monday to Friday Adam bets and manages risk on behalf of the bookies as a trader. Outside of those hours he uses his trading experience to bet against any soft bookie that will take his action.

From University to Dropping Odds

While studying at university in 2017 Adam started matched betting to pay for rent. After his free bets and promotions were all used up he moved over to value betting and quickly found he had a "knack for finding mispricings in the market". After six and half years of value betting his experience beating the bookies ended up landing him a job with one of the biggest whitelabel sportsbooks in the world. From this position, he has been able to gather valuable insights into the way that sportsbooks set odds.“A lot of the industry use Pinnacle as a benchmark … because Pinnacle is moving its prices based on sharp business so they are always going to be sharper compared to other books”.

Adam recognised that there was often a window of opportunity between Pinnacle adjusting their odds and other bookies reacting. If you are quick enough then you can catch the 'stale' inflated odds at the slow bookie providing positive expected value when using Pinnacle's price (stripped of vig) as a benchmark. In November 2023 Adam resumed his value betting journey, leveraging this insight.

Since re-starting 4 months ago, he has had incredible results using the dropping odds strategy:

£351,237 Staked

£35,204 ($44,000) Profit

10% Yield

2,812 Bets

Alert Configurations That Brought Success

“I bet on any sport really but I’ve had the most success with soccer, basketball and tennis”

As you can see Adam has configurations set for almost every sport but most of his bets are in soccer, basketball and tennis markets. This isn't deliberate he says he will "bet on any sport as long as the value is there it just so happens there's a lot more value in soccer, basketball and tennis markets compared to something like MMA"

Bet365 is the Best

“Bet365’s margin tends to be slimmer so when you get a big drop they tend to be offering the best odds among softs”Bet365 is famous among sharp bettors for being extremely exploitable. As Adam mentioned in our chat their odds are very competitive and they are relatively slow to limit. He also highlighted the importance of "having as many bookmaker accounts as possible" so that you're still in the game after account limitations.

Optimising Turnover

“Turnover really comes down to how much time you are willing to put into it, you could spend eight hours on Saturday at your computer or one hour. If you spend eight hours you’ll obviously place more bets and I don’t think any of that time will be wasted … you also naturally start to pick up on when are the right times to bet as you get more experienced”“I’d also recommend switching to a more aggressive staking strategy like Kelly if you are comfortable with bigger drawdowns … in short don’t be scared to stake big when the value is big”

Avoiding Account Limitations

“Working in the industry helps, the main thing is making sure to think about how a trader on the other end would see the bets … if you’re taking five different lines on the same event within a minute for example that looks pretty suspicious”He goes on to say that even with his industry knowledge he still “can’t avoid limitations forever but doing things like not making unnecessary withdrawals and using the casino every now and then do work to extend the life of accounts”.

Betting into Low limit Markets

“I bet most markets but I do stay away from any markets with limits below 3 figures so for example I wouldn’t bet a market with a limit of $25”“The less liquid markets tend to have the bigger drops anyway so I often find the biggest price discrepancies in them”Adam spends a lot of his time betting on more obscure, less liquid markets as he finds the most value in these markets. Like many sharp bettors, he applies a margin of safety that is proportional to the estimated efficiency of the market, which protects him from negative EV bets. He goes on to say that because the "drops are bigger in less efficient markets" he doesn't have to do much work to apply the principle because the necessary discrepancy is usually already there.

Dealing with Variance

“I don’t worry about variance too much- the only thing I do is I won’t bet on odds that are above 6 (+500). Most of my bets hover around 2.5 to 3.00 (+150 to +300)”Adam admitted to me that variance can be tough but he said he's a big advocate of sticking to the maths and allowing it to work itself out in the long run so he's always been able to remain disciplined during inevitable downturns. “I have the bankroll to absorb variance and I know that I’m always going to be cautious enough to stay in the game and that is all that matters”

Closing Advice to Dropping Odds Bettors

With the chat coming to an end Adam left us with some closing advice and he struck on the single most important idea when it comes to sports betting; "trust the numbers and not your emotions"“The main thing is to trust the numbers and not your emotions. Even if you think you know something about a match Pinnacle are almost always going to know more than you so stay disciplined”“If you consistently beat Pinnacle’s no vig price then you will do well it’s as simple as that”

POP QUIZ:

Q: : Which sportsbook was the first to offer live/in-play betting?

Iowa's latest legislative proposal targeting sports betting account sharing could have far-reaching implications for sophisticated bettors who rely on multiple accounts to maintain their edge. Senate Study Bill 1097, advanced this week by a state senate subcommittee, would explicitly criminalize both account sharing and proxy betting - practices that, while already prohibited by administrative rules, currently exist in a legal gray area.

The bill's impact could extend well beyond its intended target of underage gambling. Professional sports bettors, particularly those employing mathematically-driven strategies, often depend on access to multiple accounts after their primary ones face restrictions. This practice, while controversial, has become something of an open secret in the betting community as operators increasingly limit successful players.

"This legislation could effectively end certain forms of advantage play in Iowa," notes one professional bettor who requested anonymity. "When books limit you to betting $50 after you show any skill, the only way to maintain sufficient volume is through additional accounts. Making that a criminal offense changes the risk calculation entirely."

The timing is particularly noteworthy as Iowa has emerged as a key battleground for sports betting regulation. The state's investigation of college athletes' betting activities in 2023 revealed gaps in enforcement capabilities that this bill appears designed to address. However, the legislation's broad language could cast a much wider net.

For sportsbooks, the proposal represents a double-edged sword. While it may help prevent some forms of arbitrage betting that eat into margins, criminalization of account sharing could also reduce overall betting volume from some of their most active customers.

The bill now moves to the full Senate Judiciary Committee for consideration. Whatever its fate, it signals an evolving regulatory landscape that may force professional bettors to adapt their strategies - or seek greener pastures in states with less restrictive oversight.

Telegram Poll of the Week 📊

TRIVIA ANSWER

A: Intertops (now Everygame) in 1996

See you next time!

That's it for today on The Steam Report ♨️!

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dylan@Pinnacleoddsdropper.com

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Author: dylan@pinnacleoddsdropper.com

P.S. If you have an audience in the advantage betting niche and want to partner with Pinnacle Odds Dropper then email me at dylan@pinnacleoddsdropper.com. Let's hammer out a deal.

British Trader's $44k Dropping Odds Success Story + Iowa's New Betting Laws | The Steam Report #10

British Trader's $44k Dropping Odds Success Story + Iowa's New Betting Laws | The Steam Report #10