.png?table=block&id=184165a8-57b0-8072-b5f1-ef6f32712460&cache=v2)
Table of Contents
- What is Positive EV Betting? Expected Value Betting Explained
- Understanding Expected Value in Sports Betting
- How to Calculate Expected Value
- Finding +EV Betting Opportunities
- 1. Line Shopping
- 2. Market Inefficiencies
- 3. Using Sharp Bookmakers as a Reference
- Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Tools and Resources for EV Betting
- Advanced EV Concepts
- The Kelly Criterion
- Market Efficiency
- Conclusion
- FAQ: Common Questions About EV Betting
Do not index
Do not index
What is Positive EV Betting? Expected Value Betting Explained
Expected value (EV) betting is often discussed in sports betting circles, but many bettors don't fully understand this crucial concept. In this comprehensive guide, we'll break down what positive EV betting means, why it matters for your long-term profitability, and how to identify +EV betting opportunities.
Understanding Expected Value in Sports Betting
Expected value in sports betting represents the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per bet over the long run. A bet with positive expected value (+EV) means that, mathematically, you should make money on that wager if you could place it many times under the same conditions.
Let's break this down with a simple example:
If a coin flip game offered odds of +110 (2.10) for heads, this would be a +EV bet because the true probability of heads is 50%, but the payout implies a lower probability. Over enough flips, you would theoretically profit despite not having any edge in predicting the outcome.
How to Calculate Expected Value
The formula for calculating expected value is:
EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake)
For example, if you bet $100 at -110 odds (1.91) on a team that you believe has a 55% chance of winning:
- Probability of winning: 0.55
- Potential profit: $90.91
- Probability of losing: 0.45
- Stake: $10
EV = (0.55 × $90.91) - (0.45 × $100)
EV = $50 - $45
EV = $5
This $5 positive expected value indicates a potentially profitable bet in the long run.
Finding +EV Betting Opportunities
Here are key methods for identifying positive expected value bets:
1. Line Shopping
Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best available price. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your EV.
2. Market Inefficiencies
Look for situations where sportsbooks might have mispriced odds due to:
- Breaking news (injuries, weather, etc.)
- Limited market information
- Public betting bias on popular teams
3. Using Sharp Bookmakers as a Reference
Track line movements at sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle, which typically offer the most efficient odds in the market. When recreational sportsbooks lag behind these moves, +EV opportunities can emerge.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Ignoring the Vig: Always account for the bookmaker's margin when calculating EV. Learn more about how the vig impacts your betting in our comprehensive guide to vigorish.
- Sample Size: Don't judge your EV betting success on small samples. Even +EV bets can lose in the short term.
- Emotional Betting: Stick to your calculated edges rather than betting based on hunches or favorites.
Tools and Resources for EV Betting
Several tools can help you identify and calculate expected value:
- Odds converters
- Implied probability calculators
- Line movement trackers
- Closing line value (CLV) calculators
For more information on closing line value, check out this detailed explanation from Joseph Buchdahl.
Advanced EV Concepts
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula helps optimize your bet sizing based on your edge and bankroll.
Market Efficiency
Understanding how quickly markets become efficient is crucial for EV betting success. Early lines typically offer more +EV opportunities before sharp money moves them toward efficiency.
Conclusion
Positive EV betting is fundamental to long-term sports betting success. While identifying truly +EV situations requires skill and experience, understanding these concepts gives you a framework for making more profitable betting decisions. Remember that variance plays a significant role in short-term results, but following +EV principles consistently should lead to profitability over time.
FAQ: Common Questions About EV Betting
What does EV mean in sports betting?
EV (expected value) represents your theoretical profit or loss per bet over the long run. +EV means you should profit over time.
Why is EV important for sports bettors?
EV helps you make mathematical betting decisions rather than emotional ones. It's one of the few proven ways to achieve long-term betting profitability.
How can I calculate if a bet has positive EV?
Use the formula: EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake). Online calculators can help simplify this process.
What's the relationship between EV and the closing line?
If you consistently beat the closing lines at sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle, you're likely finding +EV bets since closing lines represent efficient market prices.
How much +EV is needed for a good bet?
Most professional bettors target at least 2-3% edge after accounting for the vig, though this varies based on individual strategy and risk tolerance.
Can I still lose money on +EV bets?
Yes. Variance means you can lose in the short term even with +EV bets. This is why proper bankroll management is crucial.
What's the best way to find +EV bets?
Line shop across multiple sportsbooks, follow sharp movements, focus on niche markets, and use odds comparison tools.
How does the vig affect EV calculations?
The vig reduces every bet's EV. You need to overcome this built-in disadvantage to find truly +EV situations.
Written by
Co-founder of Pinnacle Odds Dropper and creator of The Steam Report which is a weekly advantage betting newsletter
