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While casual bettors focus on fun props like Gatorade color and first touchdown scorer, professional bettors have already made significant moves on several key props for Sunday's Chiefs-Eagles matchup. Let's examine where the sharp money is flowing and the reasoning behind these wagers according to sports betting expert Patrick Everson.
Saquon Barkley's Longest Rush Under 25.5 Yards
Current Pinnacle line: [25.5 yards \ Over: +134 Under: -163]
Professional bettor Bill Krackomberger jumped on Under 25.5 at The SuperBook's prop release, quickly moving the line down to 23.5. The logic? Kansas City's defensive focus will likely center on containing Barkley's explosive plays.
"I'm shocked I was able to bet it," Krackomberger said. "I expected the number to be 19.5 or 20.5." He made the maximum allowed bet of $2,000, indicating strong conviction in the Under.
Professionals like Krackomberger typically bet 70-90% unders on props, especially early in the betting cycle. As he noted, "My way of betting is not a fun way. It's a very boring way. I'm rooting for no scoring."
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Over 28.5
Current Pinnacle line: [31.5 yards \ Over: -100 Under: -121]
Sharp bettor Randy McKay targeted this prop immediately, grabbing Over 28.5 at -110. The number has since climbed to 31.5, validating the early sharp action. McKay's analysis centered on Mahomes' recent rushing tendencies, particularly his 11 carries for 43 yards against Buffalo in the AFC Championship.
"I like Mahomes to keep running the ball like he did against Buffalo. He even had some designed runs in that game," McKay noted. "This could be another opportunity in a domed stadium on a fast track to use his legs."
Nick Bolton Total Tackles Over 7.5
Current Pinnacle line: [8.5 \ Over: +120 Under: -146]
Sharp action has pushed this line from Over 7.5 (-120) to Over 7.5 (-150) at several books. McKay, who's been successfully betting tackle props all season, sees value based on historical performance.
"Bolton had nine tackles in the Super Bowl two years ago, and Philly didn't run the ball as much then as they do now," McKay explained. The Eagles' run-heavy approach could provide ample tackling opportunities for Kansas City's middle linebacker.
Jahan Dotson Receptions Over 0.5
Current Pinnacle line: [0.5 Rec. \ Over: -149 Under: +123]
This prop opened at Over 0.5 (-110) and has been steamed up to -170 by sharp action. While Dotson sits behind A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert in the Eagles' passing hierarchy, professional bettors see value in needing just one reception to cash.
Total Chiefs Players With a Rushing Attempt Over 4.5
Current Pinnacle line: [4.5 \ Over: +120 Under: -146]
Perhaps the most interesting sharp move came on this prop, which opened at Over 4.5 (+140) before being bet down to Over 4.5 (-130). Mahomes, Hunt, Pacheco, and Worthy are virtual locks to record carries, leaving room for just one more rusher to push this Over.
"That surprises me a little bit, to see the bettors hit it like that," said SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon. Sharp bettors may be anticipating gadget plays or late-game scenarios that could involve additional ball carriers.
Additional Sharp Action
Professional money has also hit these props:
- Under 13.5 players to have a pass reception
- Both punters to have a touchback
- Mahomes -0.5 passing touchdowns vs. Hurts
Key Takeaway
While recreational bettors gravitate toward entertaining props with long odds, professional bettors target props where they believe the lines are fundamentally mispriced based on their analysis. The movement in these markets suggests they've identified several opportunities worth attacking before Sunday's kickoff.
The Super Bowl 59 props menu is the largest ever offered, with props expected to account for over 60% of the estimated $1.5 billion in total betting handle across regulated US markets.
With low levels of vig across the board and eye watering limits, if you have a unique insight then bucket loads of money can be made on Super Bowl weekend, the only trouble is the sportsbooks know their stuff when it comes to the NFL and the Big Game is no exception so finding value is always a tall order.
Written by
Co-founder of Pinnacle Odds Dropper and creator of The Steam Report which is a weekly advantage betting newsletter