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How does the minimum drop % filter work?
The minimum drop percentage filter allows you to set a minimum drop size for your dropping odds alerts. For example if you set it to 10% and there is a drop of 9% you won’t receive the alert but if there is a drop of 11% you will.
The odds used in the drop % calculation are the normal odds before the vig has been subtracted.
Recommended minimum drop %
Anecdotally users have had success with minimum drop percentages of anywhere from 8% to 15%. We would not recommend going below 8% though as you aren’t going to be finding enough expected value to bet confidently on the less efficient markets owing to the fact you are chasing smaller drops.
How the minimum drop % effects your turnover
The minimum drop percentage acts as a filter for your alerts. A higher percentage means fewer, but potentially more valuable alerts. Conversely, a lower percentage increases alert frequency but may include less significant opportunities.
Finding Your Sweet Spot:
Experiment with different minimum drop percentages to strike the perfect balance between alert quality and quantity. This 'sweet spot' varies for each bettor, depending on their strategy and goals.
Boosting Turnover:
If you're looking to increase your betting turnover, consider lowering your minimum drop percentage. However, approach this adjustment cautiously. Remember:
- Quality over quantity: More bets don't always mean more profit.
- Preserve positive EV: Never compromise on positive expected value for the sake of higher turnover.
- Gradual adjustments: Make small, incremental changes and monitor results.
Bigger drop % for less efficient markets?
For low-limit, high-vig markets, bettors should set a higher minimum drop % to ensure a larger margin of safety. This compensates for potential inefficiencies in Pinnacle's pricing. To find bigger discrepancies between Pinnacle and soft bookmakers in these markets, one needs to catch larger drops. Therefore, when betting on inefficient markets, a bettor should consider a relatively high minimum drop %. A starting point of 10% is recommended for such scenarios.