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What Does ^ Mean?
The ^ symbol appears in several places across the bet tracker. Here's what it indicates in each case:
- Before odds/prices (e.g., ^1.95) - indicating we've approximated what the odds would be for your line since it's no longer quoted in the market
- Before EV calculations (e.g., ^5.2%) - indicating the EV has been calculated using GLM-approximated odds rather than directly quoted market odds
- Before CLV calculations (e.g., ^3.8%) - indicating the CLV has been calculated using GLM-approximated closing odds
- Before vig calculations (e.g., ^4.2%) - indicating the vig has been calculated using GLM-approximated odds
- Before limit calculations (e.g., ^$3000) - this is actually the limit Pinnacle offered at closing for other lines in this market - it doesn't use GLM approximation
When you see ^, it means some part of the calculation relies on our statistical model's approximation rather than actual market quotes - with the exception of limits, where it simply indicates we're showing you Pinnacle's closing limit for similar lines in the same market.
What is a GLM?
A Generalized Linear Model (GLM) is a statistical tool that helps us solve a common problem in sports betting: what happens when the exact line you bet on is no longer available?
Think of it like this - if you bet on NBA Celtics -5.5 points, but the line moves to -6, how do we track your bet's value? The GLM uses market data and statistical patterns to estimate what the -5.5 line would be trading at if it were still available.
The two most important things this allows us to do are:
- Calculate your current EV at any point
- Measure your CLV accurately
When Does POD Use GLM?
The GLM can come into play at many point throughout a bet's lifecycle - from when you first log it, through real-time tracking, all the way to closing line value calculation. It activates whenever we need to work with spreads or totals where your exact line is no longer being quoted by Pinnacle.
This is relatively rare - most of the time we can use actual market quotes for our calculations and this is of course our preference. But when line movements mean your exact spread or total is no longer available, the GLM steps in to help maintain accurate tracking of your bet.
Only spread and total bets are affected by the GLM - moneyline bets don't require these approximations since they aren't impacted by point movements.
All GLM approximations are clearly marked with ^ for transparency, so you'll always know when we're using the model rather than direct market quotes.
What About Suspended Markets?
When you see a market turn orange in POD, this indicates that Pinnacle has temporarily suspended betting - perhaps due to an injury update or other significant event. This is different from when a specific line is no longer quoted due to point movements.
In suspended market situations:
- The values shown will be the last available values before suspension
- You'll see the market highlighted in orange
- We don't use the GLM to approximate values
- The market will return to normal once Pinnacle reopens betting
The GLM is specifically designed to handle cases where your exact spread or total is no longer quoted due to line movements, not temporary market suspensions. This distinction is important - when a market is suspended, we simply use the last known values until betting resumes.
When Can't GLM Be Used?
For statistical validity, our GLM requires at least 3 different spreads or totals to be quoted by Pinnacle to make approximations. This ensures we have enough data points for reliable regression analysis.
When fewer than 3 lines are available:
- The GLM cannot be used
- A '-' will be shown instead of any values that would normally use GLM approximation
- This applies to all values that would normally have a ^ prefix
Once more lines become available, the GLM will resume providing approximations marked with ^.
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