Do not index
Do not index
The Reality of Dropping Odds Alerts
The majority of dropping odds alerts you receive on POD likely won't lead to a value bet - and that's completely normal.
As a new user of the dropping odds strategy, expect to place approximately one bet for every five alerts. With experience and knowledge of 'prime times' and 'fruitful markets', you can improve this ratio significantly. However, you'll still need to filter through alerts that don't lead to bets.
You may experience streaks of 10-15 consecutive alerts without finding a viable bet. This is normal. Remember: we profit from placing good bets but don't lose money by passing on bad ones.
Important Note: Your alert-to-bet ratio will vary significantly based on:
- Your location
- Available sportsbooks
- Market conditions
Don't get discouraged if someone has a better ratio - they may simply have different market conditions.
Two Main Reasons Alerts Don't Lead to Bets
1. Soft Sportsbooks Have Already Adjusted Their Odds
Just because sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings are sometimes slow to adjust their odds doesn't mean they're always slow. Often, by the time you check, they've already matched Pinnacle's odds, eliminating any potential value.
How to Improve Your Speed
- Keep your sportsbook tabs open and ready
- Enable alert sounds and maintain high volume
- Practice quick reading of team names, markets, and NVP
- Use a fixed stake strategy to avoid calculation delays
Target Slower Markets
- Track which competitions consistently offer value
- Identify which sportsbooks are slower to adjust
- Focus on these "rich hunting grounds"
- Remember: each region has different sportsbooks with varying market sensitivity
2. Your Sportsbooks Don't Offer the Market
Not every sportsbook offers every sport, league, or bet type. You'll often find alerts for markets you can't bet on.
Solutions
- Add Coverage
- Open accounts at multiple sportsbooks
- Focus on sportsbooks with broad market coverage (like FanDuel)
- Check Related Markets
- If DraftKings doesn't offer Over 3.25 but has Over 3.0, check it
- Correlated markets often move together
- Use the 'QuickLook' feature (blue magnifying glass in SideKick) to view all available markets
- Exclude Competitions
- Filter out leagues your sportsbooks don't cover
- Example: Excluding "Nigeria - NPFL" if no local sportsbooks offer it
Why Value Betting Isn't Baseball ⚾
In baseball, three strikes and you're out. In value betting:
- No penalty for passing on bad bets
- Significant penalty for placing negative EV bets
- Patience and discipline are crucial
During slow periods:
- Don't force bets out of frustration
- Maintain discipline during dry spells
- Remember: quality over quantity
In the next guide i’ll take you through everything you need to consider when optimising up your dropping odds alert configurations → Getting Started #06: Tailoring your alert configurations everything to consider
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