1k Bets on Betfair Sportsbook €9k profit: Afonso’s Winning Value Strategy

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Success stories often pique our interest in the world of sports betting. Recently, we shared a tweet about a user of our service who achieved impressive results, sparking curiosity about his strategy. Today, we're diving deep into the betting journey of Afonso, who has managed to profit over €9,000 from just over 1,000 bets on Betfair SP using the dropping odds value betting strategy.

KPIs

Profit: €9,076

Number of Bets: 1,004

Turnover: €51,700

Yield: 17.56% (An exceptional performance!)

Average Odds: 2.10

Average Stake: €52

Average Profit Per Bet: €9.04

Key Insights from Afonso's Strategy

Market Focus: Afonso notes that Betfair SP is particularly soft for moneyline and totals markets.

Betting Schedule: While Afonso bets daily, he increases his betting hours during weekends to capitalize on the higher volume of alerts and betting opportunities.

Bookmaker Selection: Although his strategy works across multiple bookmakers, Afonso is currently focusing on Betfair SP until he faces account limitations.

Avoiding Account Limitations: To blend in with casual bettors, Afonso occasionally places sizeable bets on popular leagues like the Premier League. He also avoids frequent withdrawals to prevent drawing attention to his account.

Variance Management: With an average odds of 2.10, Afonso maintains a relatively smooth profit curve. Lower average odds tend to result in less severe upswings and downswings.

Sport Specialization: Afonso prefers to focus solely on soccer, citing personal preference and the benefits of specialization. However, he acknowledges that success can be achieved betting across multiple sports.

Staking Strategy: Afonso employs a three-tier staking system based on odds:

Stake 1 (0.25% of bankroll): Odds over 2.50

Stake 2 (0.50% of bankroll): Odds between 2.00 - 2.50

Stake 3 (1.00% of bankroll): Odds less than 2.00

Minimum Drop Percentage: Afonso sets his minimum drop percentage at 8% when configuring his alerts.

Afonso’s Winning Dropping Odds Alert Configuration for Betfair SP

Afonso’s dropping odds alert configuration on POD

Telegram Channel

Afonso runs a free Telegram channel called Betfair Breaking Down where posts his bets in real-time. This offers an excellent opportunity for aspiring bettors to learn from his approach and potentially capitalize on the same value bets. You can check it out here.

Conclusion

Afonso's success story demonstrates the potential of the dropping odds strategy when applied with discipline and a well-thought-out approach. His focus on a single bookmaker and sport, combined with smart bankroll management and a keen eye for value, has yielded impressive results.

We extend our gratitude to Afonso for sharing his results and insights with our community. His story serves as an inspiration and a valuable learning resource for both novice and experienced bettors alike.