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[Already an expert on the dropping odds strategy? Skip to Getting Started #03 and learn about the most important data point in any dropping odds alert the NVP]
What is the Dropping Odds Value Betting Strategy?
The dropping odds value betting strategy is a top-down sports betting approach that involves monitoring the odds of a sharp sportsbook in order to find value bets on soft sportsbooks which are slower to adjust to new information that has entered the market.
The Sharpest Sportsbook: Pinnacle
Pinnacle is widely considered the sharpest sportsbook in the world. Other sportsbook across the world copy Pinnacle’s odds because of this but crucially they copy Pinnacle on a delay of up to a few minutes! (the delay can vary depending on the sportsbook and the specific market)
This delay gives quick bettors a window of opportunity to place value bets on slower sportsbooks before the odds are adjusted to reflect the new information that has entered the market.
What is a Dropping Odds Alert?
Because it’s impossible to manually monitor thousands of Pinnacle’s odds waiting for a drop we need an automated service that does this for us and sends us alerts when odds have dropped so that we can move quickly to place a bet at a slower sportsbook.
Dropping odds alerts are bundles of information sent to your desktop or mobile that tell you everything you need to know in order to find a value bet including the exact price you need to beat in order for your bet to have positive expected value.
3 Alert Configurations to Get Started ⬇️
[View our recommended alert configurations for all sports in Getting Started #04]
We recommend you start off by creating the alert configurations below for the three biggest sports; soccer, basketball and tennis. Once you have more experience you can tailor them to your own context and needs:
Example of a Dropping Odds Value Bet on Bet365
This bet was found using an alert from the Getting Started soccer configuration above!
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In this real-world example, Pinnacle dropped its odds from +169 (2.69) → +137 (2.37) while Bet365 kept its odds high at +200 (3) so we took the bet on Bet365. Shortly after this bet Bet365 adjusted its odds emphasising the need to move quickly.
The Price to Beat: NVP
In the example above we only took the bet because the price was above the No Vig Price (NVP). Every alert comes with an NVP and it is vital that you only place a bet when the odds you are getting are higher than it. It is the single most important piece of data in any alert.
Don’t worry in the next Getting Started guide I’m going to explain exactly what the NVP is and why it's so important → Getting Started #03: What is the NVP and why is it so important?
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