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How does the max time to match start filter work?
The max time to match start filter allows you to control how close the event has to be to starting in order to be alerted. For example if you set it to 24 hours and the odds drop on an outcome for an event that starts in 30 hours then you won’t be alerted if however the event starts in 15 hours then you will be alerted as it starts within 24 hours.
Recommended max time to match start
We recommend you set your max time to match start filter to two days if you are new, that’s why all of our Getting Started Alert Configurations have a two day max time to match start. Other max times can work well but taking into consideration market efficiency and turnover we believe this is the optimal setting for most users.
Effect on market efficiency
When Pinnacle opens a new market it is, relatively speaking, quite inefficient. This is because there is lots of uncertainty. As the match approaches information like confirmed lineups and the weather become available so uncertainty decreases which means Pinnacle can price the market more effectively. On top of the ‘fundamental’ information, Pinnacle also will get pricing guidance from the flow of money, specifically sharp money throughout the life of the market. So as sharp money flows into one side of the market Pinnacle will drop the odds in response. These adjustments bring the market closer to perfect efficiency over time.
So what does this mean? It means if you want to receive alerts for more efficient markets then set the max time to match start filter so that you only receive alerts for matches close to starting.
In my article on market efficiency (Pinnacle’s Odds Keep Bouncing Back After I Place a Bet, What Do I Do?) I explain that you can and should still bet on less efficient markets using the margin of safety principle so there isn’t necessarily a need to limit your alerts to within a short time before the match starts. The margin of safety principle demands that you only take a bet on a market if the premium to Pinnacle’s NVP is proportional to the market efficiency which can be estimated by analysing the limit and vig in conjunction. This is a whole topic in itself so I do recommend you read the article I referenced above as it will help you greatly when it comes to setting this filter.
One important thing to be aware of if you decide to start betting closer to the start of the match is that some bookmakers will take the markets offline within 5-10 minutes of kickoff so you may well find fewer opportunities if you focus on bets too close to kickoff.
Effect on turnover
Let’s imagine that we place two almost identical bets with an expected value of 5%. One of the bets is for a match that starts in three days and the other is for a match that starts in two hours.
If we could only place one of the bets then of course we would place the one on the game that starts in two hours because we are going to lock our capital up for a far shorter amount of time. Once this bet has settled we can place another bet at 5% EV whereas with the first bet we have to wait three days for our bet to settle before we can re-deploy that capital. I might be able to place nine or ten bets in the three days that it takes for the second bet to settle!
Higher turnover can mean better overall ROI (return on investment) even if the average yield of your bets is less. So for this reason I tend to keep my max time to match start filter close to match start.