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What is the NVP?
NVP stands for No Vig Price. This is the price that we strongly recommend you beat in order for your bet to have value.
The NVP is simply Pinnacle’s price (odds) with their built-in vig, or in other words profit margin, subtracted. It is our best estimate of fair odds which means we believe the implied probability of these odds reflects the true probability of a given event occurring.
Why Beating it is so Important
If you don’t consistently beat the NVP then your bets are going to have negative expected value. This is because your payouts are going to be too small relative to the probabilities of the events that you are betting on occurring. Over time you will lose money if you don’t beat the NVP so you should never take odds if they aren’t!
To Bet or Not to Bet?
The NVP for the alerted market below is -133 (1.75) and Bet365 is offering odds of -143 (1.70) on the same market. Should you take the bet?
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No, The expected value of this bet would have been around -3%. Remember odds of -143 (1.70) pay out less than the NVP of -133 (1.75).
The NVP for the alerted market below is +210 (3.10) and Bet365 is offering odds of +210 (3.10) on the same market. Should you take the bet?
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No, the expected value of this bet would have been 0% meaning you wouldn’t lose money but you also wouldn’t money as the NVP and odds offered by Bet365 are identical.
The NVP for the alerted market below is +142 (2.42) and Bet365 is offering odds of +155 (2.55) on the same market. Should you take the bet?
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Yes, the expected value of this bet would have been over 5% meaning it is a value bet and we would expect to make money off these types of bets in the long term.
Different De-Vigging Methods
There are four different methods for subtracting the vig from Pinnacle’s odds; Power, Additive, Multiplicative, and Shin.
While we do give users the option to choose which de-vigging method is used we recommend beginners stick with the default Power method as it is widely accepted as the best due to it accounting for the longshot bias while ensuring the de-vigged probabilities remain within the valid 0-1 range, avoiding infeasibilities.
In the next guide, I'll share with you what alert configurations the team recommends to beginners for all the sports available on POD → Getting Started #04: Getting Started alert configurations for all sports
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