Do not index
Do not index
The winter solstice approaches and on this Friday the 13th, the sports betting landscape continues to evolve rapidly. Between major industry acquisitions and technological advancements, our sector demonstrates once again its capacity for constant innovation and refinement.
💰 Weekly Dropping Odds Strategy Results [12.05.2024 - 12.12.2024]
Today, we'll look at:
- Major industry acquisition shakes up odds comparison space
- POD launches advanced GLM implementation (v0.998)
- Why Pinnacle remains the gold standard for market efficiency
This, and more, in just 5 minutes to read.
OddsJam Acquisition Signals Market Evolution 👇
The odds comparison landscape saw a major shift this week with Gambling.com Group's agreement to acquire OddsJam's parent company for up to $160 million. The deal, set to close January 2025, underscores the growing importance of real-time odds data and market efficiency tools in sports betting.
Key details of the acquisition:
- Initial payment of $80M with performance-based earnout of up to $80M through 2026
- OddsJam processes over 1M requests per second across nearly 300 sportsbooks
- Expected 2024 revenue of $26M with $12M adjusted EBITDA
This consolidation reflects broader industry trends toward sophisticated odds tracking and analysis tools - capabilities that our users have long valued in POD.
POP QUIZ
Who created the first widely-used closing line value formula in sports betting?
Advancing Statistical Precision: GLM Implementation 👇
This week marks a significant advancement in POD's capabilities with our GLM (Generalized Linear Model) implementation in v0.998. This enhancement particularly improves the accuracy of Current EV and CLV calculations through sophisticated statistical modeling.
When exact betting lines are no longer quoted, GLM uses regression analysis to maintain precise tracking throughout a bet's lifecycle. Look for the ^ symbol indicating GLM-approximated values across:
- Odds/prices
- EV calculations
- CLV measurements
- Vig calculations
📚 GLM Guide: https://dub.link/GLMGUIDE
🟠 Reddit (Semi)-Technical Deep-Dive: Understanding POD's New GLM Implementation (v0.998): https://dub.link/GLMDEEPDIVE
Why Pinnacle Remains Our Gold Standard 👇
The efficiency of Pinnacle's market pricing forms the foundation of successful value betting. Our use of Pinnacle as the benchmark isn't just tradition – it's validated by decades of market performance and independent research.
Joseph Buchdahl's recent analysis provides compelling evidence of Pinnacle's efficiency. In studying 952 POD-identified value bets, 756 saw price shortening or no movement by closing, with an average shortening of 3.94%. Statistical significance was achieved in just 65 bets, demonstrating the robustness of using Pinnacle as our benchmark.
What sets Pinnacle apart:
- 26-year track record of welcoming sharp action
- Industry-lowest margins (2-3% vs. standard 4.5-5%)
- Sophisticated risk management systems
- Rapid incorporation of market intelligence
📊 Telegram Poll of the Week: Minimum Drop Percentage Preferences
This week's poll asked users about their preferred minimum drop percentage settings, providing valuable insight into how our community approaches value betting. With 110 votes cast, the results show:
- 45% prefer 10-15% drops
- 30% target 5-10% range
- 11% look for 15-20% drops
- 5% target under 5%
- 4% prefer 20-25%
- 5% seek 25%+ drops
These results reinforce the importance of finding your personal sweet spot between alert frequency and edge size. While the majority cluster in the 10-15% range, successful value betting remains possible across various thresholds when combined with proper bankroll management and market selection.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Hyun Song Shin in his 1991-1993 papers on betting markets
🗞 In The News
💡 What We're Working On
Beyond our GLM implementation, we continue advancing several key initiatives:
- Events archiver development (37k+ events stored already)
- Bet Tracker dashboard share button (this will allow you to share your results with your friends easily + great for our affiliates!)
- Value Bronze tier (for those who wan't a limited feature set a cheaper price point)
See you next time!
That's it for today on The Steam Report ♨️!
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dylan@pinnacleoddsdropper.com
P.S. Join our growing community on r/PinnacleOddsDropper to discuss advantage betting strategies!