Table of Contents
- December Dropping Odds Strategy Results ❄️
- Understanding the Results
- US Value Betting in 2025: Markets, Methods & Momentum 🇺🇸
- New Markets on the Horizon
- Navigating the Constraints
- The Road Ahead Looks Bright
- Telegram Poll of the Week 📊
- What the Veterans Would Tell You: Wisdom from the Trenches 👴🏻
- Start Smart, Stay Smart
- The Art of Account Management
- Understanding Market Confidence
- The Long Game
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December Dropping Odds Strategy Results ❄️
Our December dropping odds strategy results demonstrate both the strategy's robustness and some interesting statistical insights:
Understanding the Results
Looking at the profit curve, we see expected profit (CLV) outpacing actual realized profit. This divergence offers an interesting statistical lesson: while aggregate user results show seemingly extreme variance from expected profit, an individual bettor placing this volume of bets would likely see much tighter convergence with expected profit.
Why? Many of these bets are correlated - multiple users betting the same alerts. This correlation actually increases the apparent variance in our aggregate data. An individual placing 35,000+ uncorrelated bets would theoretically experience almost no divergence from expected profit due to the massive sample size.
P.S. Not all our users log their bets using the on-platform bet tracker so results are not reflective of our entire user base but rather a portion of the userbase. Only bets logged from the dropping odds alerts tab are considered dropping odds strategy bets, all bets logged had a profit of $161k in December, we'll be reporting on these results in our next YouTube video which is being released soon so make sure to subscribe.
POP QUIZ Q: What year did Pinnacle become the first major sportsbook to accept Bitcoin?
US Value Betting in 2025: Markets, Methods & Momentum 🇺🇸
As we enter 2025, value betting in the US remains in growth mode. The strategy's core premise - exploiting market inefficiencies through systematic betting - remains robust, even as the American sports betting landscape continues its rapid evolution.
New Markets on the Horizon
The US sports betting market continues its expansion, with several major states considering legalization in 2025. South Carolina appears poised to join its neighbor North Carolina in allowing digital wagering, which has already generated tens of millions in monthly revenue since launching in March. Minnesota shows promising signs of stakeholder alignment, with tribal gaming interests potentially reaching consensus. Most significantly, Georgia, as the third-largest untapped state market, could provide substantial opportunities if lawmakers overcome political hurdles.
The progressive rollout of legal markets has proven that newer operators entering fresh territories often provide valuable opportunities for disciplined bettors who can beat Pinnacle's closing line value. Franco's documented success in 2024 ($43k profit across major US operators) demonstrates that despite increasing sophistication, exploitable inefficiencies persist in American markets.
Navigating the Constraints
Account limitations remain the US value bettor's primary challenge. Success in 2025 will require continued focus on account longevity tactics like proper priming, especially given the concentrated nature of the American market with its limited number of licensed operators. Sourcing new accounts and maintaining access to key books will remain critical for sustained profitability.
Value bettors need to stay vigilant and adaptable as US books may potentially speed up their adjustment times in 2025. While current conditions allow for consistent edge exploitation, being prepared for evolving book behavior will be important - particularly as operators gain experience in new state markets.
The Road Ahead Looks Bright
Despite the challenges, the outlook for US value betting in 2025 appears remarkably promising. The continued state-by-state rollout creates regular waves of opportunity as new operators enter markets and compete for market share. Unlike more mature betting jurisdictions, American sportsbooks are still finding their footing with pricing efficiency, particularly in non-major markets.
What makes this moment especially compelling is the unique intersection of technology, market expansion, and operator competition. US bettors now have access to sophisticated tools for identifying value, while books remain focused on customer acquisition over surgical price management. This combination suggests 2025 could be a landmark year for systematic value betting approaches in the American market.
The sector's potential is in a way validated by Gambling.com Group's $160 million acquisition of OddsJam in late 2024 - a clear signal that advantage betting platforms command serious attention from major industry players. The success stories emerging from 2024 aren't outliers - they're blueprints. They demonstrate that with disciplined execution, proper bankroll management, and strategic adaptation to account limitations, substantial edges remain available in this still-maturing market.
Telegram Poll of the Week 📊
What the Veterans Would Tell You: Wisdom from the Trenches 👴🏻
Our latest Telegram poll asked users about their experience with dropping odds betting, prompting us to explore what seasoned practitioners would share with those just starting out. Here's the distilled wisdom from years in the trenches:
Start Smart, Stay Smart
"Your first instinct might be to chase every alert that comes through," one veteran user notes. "But start with shorter odds - under 3.0. You'll sleep better, and your bankroll will thank you. The mathematics of value betting is the easy part - it's the psychology that challenges most bettors. Downswings are inevitable, and they have a way of clouding judgment. By proactively managing variance through shorter odds, you're not just protecting your bankroll - you're protecting yourself from the emotional decisions that can derail an otherwise solid strategy."
The Art of Account Management
Perhaps the most valuable lessons come from account longevity tactics. Successful veterans emphasize:
- Round your stakes to whole numbers
- Mix in some recreational-looking bets during peak hours
- Keep withdrawal patterns natural
As one experienced bettor puts it: "Everyone knows how to find value bets. Keeping your accounts healthy enough to bet them is the real skill."
Understanding Market Confidence
Veterans point to two critical numbers novices often overlook: Pinnacle's vig and limits. "When you see a low-limit, high-vig market, that's Pinnacle telling you they're uncertain," explains a long-time user. "You need a bigger edge in these spots - think 8-10% over the no-vig price rather than the 4-5% that might work in major markets."
The Long Game
Perhaps most importantly, veterans emphasize that dropping odds betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Consider Adam, a professional trader who generated £35k ($43k) profit across 2,812 bets in just four months. The path includes inevitable downswings, but systematic value betting has shown remarkable staying power in an industry where few edges last. Adam's background as both a bookmaker trader and successful bettor particularly highlights this - after six years of value betting experience, he still finds meaningful edges using systematic approaches.
TRIVIA ANSWER: 2015
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P.P.S Let’s get fuck you rich off value betting in 2025. Stay frosty 🕶️