Do not index
Do not index
We are officially in the full swing of things, summer is far in the rearview mirror and betting markets are buzzing again.
💰 Weekly Dropping Odds Strategy Results [11.21.24 - 11.28.24]
Today, we'll look at:
- 5 tactics to reduce variance
• Bet Tracker released to all in open beta
• What we're working on
This, and more, in just 5 minutes to read.
POP QUIZ
What year was Pinnacle founded? (Read on to find out!)
5 Tactics to Reduce Variance
Every value bettor faces downswings - it's not if, but when. Here are five proven ways to smooth out those bumps:
- Keep Those Odds Short Betting on shorter odds means you're less likely to string together long-losing streaks. While this won't affect your long-term profits, it'll help you sleep better at night! Pro tip: Set your odds range filter to max 3.0 (200) if variance keeps you up at night.
- Volume is Your Friend The more bets you place, the closer your results will align with your mathematical edge. Our top users typically place 30+ bets per day. Just look at Franco's results - 11,565 bets led to a steady climb to +$43k!
- Avoid Double-Dipping Never place multiple bets on the same game. Those bets can be correlated, potentially exposing you to steeper losses. One bet per game keeps your risk properly distributed.
- Embrace Kelly Staking The Kelly Formula helps optimize your bet sizes based on your edge and odds. Users report significant variance reduction after switching from fixed-unit betting. Consider fractional Kelly for even smoother sailing.
- Set Maximum Bet Limits Define a maximum bet size as a percentage of your bankroll. This prevents any single loss from dealing a serious blow to your bankroll. Most successful users cap bets at 1-3% of their total bankroll.
Between bets 5,000-7,500, beta testers dipped $8k below expected value. But zoom out to all 30,470 bets: $129k profit, outperforming CLV expectations by $40k+.
While this 50% outperformance of CLV is likely unsustainable long-term, the core lesson remains proper edge + variance management + large sample size = reliable profits.
The data shows:
- Short-term: High variance, questioning strategy
- Long-term: 6.23% yield, proof of concept
- Volume matters: 30k bets vs 2.5k snapshot
Variance is temporary. Edge compounds.
Want to dive deeper? Check out our complete guide on variance reduction --> here.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Pinnacle (formerly known as Pinnacle Sports) is an online gaming website that was founded in 1998.
🗞️ In The News
🇺🇸 Missouri Sports Betting Amendment Appears Safe After Recount: "The amendment authorizes both online and in-person sports wagering, including licenses for in-person betting at the 13 existing casinos across the state."
🇦🇺 Tabcorp and PandaScore collaborate to expand esports offering in Australia: "The collaboration will initially focus on popular titles, including Counter-Strike, League of Legends and Dota 2, with plans to expand to additional games and betting markets over time."
🇬🇧 GamCare welcomes UK Government’s gambling levy as call volumes reach record levels: "GamCare welcomes UK Government’s gambling levy as call volumes reach record levels"
Telegram Poll of the Week 📊
🎉 Bet Tracker Now in Open Beta for All Users
After a successful closed beta that saw users log over $2.07M turnover in turnover with +6.23%% yield, we have decided to open up the beta!
Log bets directly from alerts, have your bets auto-graded, track your CLV automatically, monitor real-time Current EV and much more. Early beta users report that instant CLV feedback has helped them refine their selection criteria and boost profitability.
Key features:
- Log directly from alerts and events
- Auto-Grading
- Custom tags
- Export functionality
- Automated CLV calculation [Gold]
- Real-time Current EV [Gold]
Future Bet Tracker Updates:
- Use Generalized Linear Models with link functions to approximate EV/CLV for lines that are not being quoted by Pinnacle (WIP - 75% complete)
- Export bets to a spreadsheet (excel, csv)
- Detailed analysis tab to help you understand your edge and further develop it
- Ability to manage tags (e.g. rename a tag)
- Bet tracker on mobile (at the moment you can log bets on mobile but can’t see the bet tracker tab)
- Better sorting and filtering in the bet tracker table (e.g. sort by result)
- Support for parlays
- And much more
What We're Working On - Archived Events
This week we've been working on an events archiver so that we can store historical events data including price and limit history.
So far we have stored over 6,000 events using the new technology! We are hoping to release this in beta soon! Keep an eye on future Steam Reports for info on how to get early access.
See you next time!
That's it for today on The Steam Report!
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